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Gaza Poll Summary

Fafo conducted a face-to face survey with 875 respondents in Gaza in the first week of September to monitor Palestinian views on the Israeli withdrawal from the occupied Gaza strip. Among the results are:

  • A vast majority see the Israeli withdrawal as good thing that will improve their lives.
  • An overwhelming majority (84 %) believes the withdrawal is a result of the Palestinian struggle and the costs to Israel in maintaining the occupation. Most are optimistic about the positive effect the withdrawal will have on their lives.
  • A majority of Gazans (67 %) want "military operations from the Gaza Strip against Israel" to stop and a minority (38 %) hold that the Intifada more generally should continue. But a similar majority (61%) agree with the statement that "suicide bombings against Israeli civilians are necessary to get Israel to make political concessions" (39% disagreed with that statement).

Respondents were asked about their views on the political future in Gaza, following the withdrawal.

  • More than half (59%) fear an escalation of the power struggle between or within political factions following the withdrawal, with 44 % fearing that there will be an armed conflict between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA).
  • A vast majority see an inclusive National Coalition Government (95%) as the solution to the political crisis in Gaza, and many of these (88 %) believe that Hamas should be part of such a government.
  • Gazans are not optimistic about the PA's ability to control the Gaza strip (38 % think it can), while 48 % believe that control should be handled through cooperation between the PA and other political factions.

These numbers reflect a deeper reality: Palestinians in Gaza do not have a lot of confidence in their key institutions. When asked to rate their views...

  • Only around 24 % express some confidence in the Palestinian legislative council and the Council of ministers
  • Only half (53%) believe that the land vacated by the Israelis will be distributed fairly
  • Around 40 % express some confidence in Palestinian Private sector and NGOs, while Foreign NGOs and Private sector score lower than that (approx 27%)
  • On top of the confidence list is UNWRA - the UN agency for Palestine refugees - in which 78 % of Gazan's express confidence (many Gazans are refugees and have direct and long experience of UNRWA).
  • The Palestinian media (65%) also did well, but western media - like BBC and CNN - got a stark vote of non confidence (15%).

The survey results include other indicators of Palestinian opinion on a range of topics, including their views on how the PA will handle the re-distribution of land vacated by settlers, their preferences in political factions, and other indicators of political legitimacy and the likelihood of conflict.

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