929

Jon Pedersen and Marie Arneberg

Social and Economic Conditions in East Timor

1999 275

Web edition (pdf, 1,7 MB)

Social and Economic Conditions in East Timor: Project Overview

Project aim

A the main purpose of the project is to give an assessment of presently available information on social and economic conditions in East Timor, identify what kind of information is lacking, and make recommendations for producing such information.

The second purpose is to contribute to the development of strategies for post-conflict recovery and peace-building in East Timor. It is hoped that the baseline data and analysis from the project will be helpful to planners and donors for making effective use of resources.

Project organization

The project is implemented by the International Conflict Resolution Program at the School of International and Political Affairs at Columbia University, New York. Technical coordination is handled by Fafo Institute of Applied Social Science in Oslo, Norway. Sector analyses are written by a team of experts from various countries, and the project cooperates with the World Bank. The project has been developed and operates in cooperation with East Timorese. Funding is from Norway, Portugal and the World Bank.

Main topics

The project covers demography, governance, health, education, economy, environment and aid to East Timor. It will be the most comprehensive overview to date, but will also identify topics where the information needed for informed development planning is lacking.

Data sources and methodology

The project is primarily based on five main sources: a) Statistical and narrative data produced by the regional government of East Timor; Indonesian central government agencies as well as the Portuguese Colonial Administration. b) Analytical works on East Timor. c) Reports from NGOs, missions to East Timor by aid agencies and contacts with such groups d) documents produced as part of the East Timorese planning process e) Micro data files from surveys carried out by Statistics Indonesia. In order to be as complete as possible in the coverage of data and sources, the project has employed data collection specialists in East Timor, Indonesia, Portugal and Australia. It is resulted in what is probably the largest collection of sources on East Timor in existence.

The overall methodological approach is mainly to assess the data in each field according to their internal consistency and their credibility in the light of comparative situations with more reliable data as well as with expectations based on theoretical and empirical models. From the basis of accepted data, the picture of social and economic conditions is built up.

Reliability of data

Although surprisingly large amounts of data exist, there are serious questions concerning the reliability of data on the conditions in East Timor. This is partly because the security situation has made data collection difficult or impossible, and partly because the regional government of East Timor has had weak capacity to collect and analyze data properly. Finally, it is because the various parties producing information about East Timor have had their own political agendas. This does not mean that all data are equally bad, the quality of information varies between the sectors. For instance, health sector data appears quite unreliable, while some of the material on education is more useful.

Main findings

With constitutional change in East Timor, the territory faces the triple challenge of maintaining security, completely overhauling its administrative system, and laying the foundations for sustainable economic growth and social development. Whatever the outcome of the current consultation on autonomy/independence, there will be a need for a newly constructed system of governance consisting of strong public sector and civil society institutions. Of immediate concern is demobilization of armed groups and reintegration of internally displaced persons. The civil service as well as medical staff and secondary school teachers to a large extent come from outside of East Timor and have left. Thus, there is an urgent need for replacing personnel needed for public administration and delivery of social services.

The population structure is distorted by migration and war and shows a noticeable lack of adults. Fertility is at around 5 children per women, and infant mortality is high at probably somewhat below 100 deaths per 1000 during the first year of life. Maternal mortality is among the highest in the world. Despite the high mortality the population is growing fast, creating an urgent need for jobs and infrastructure. Family planning programs have been implemented in East Timor, but the very high use of injections as contraception raises questions about the voluntary nature of current efforts. It is likely that a complete rethink of the population programs will be needed.

Data on the public health situation in East Timor is conflicting. For instance vaccination coverage seems comparatively good, while few women are attended by qualified medical staff during delivery and infant mortality is very high. Also, the surprisingly frequent reporting of yaws indicate a primary health care system that is not function well. The statistics that derive from hospital and health centers show a high frequency of infectious diseases, but this may be caused by a serious underreporting of non-infectious conditions. It is clear that tuberculosis is a serious public health problem, and that current health programs cannot hope to contain it.
A sustainable education system will have to be smaller, more effective and more in accordance with the needs of the local labor market than the current large and ineffective system. Most teachers in secondary schools, and also many on tertiary level, have left and need to be replaced. Improving the quality of teachers at all levels is necessary to improve system efficiency. The likely introduction of new language(s) will put a heavy burden of the education sector. The local tax base is not sufficient to support the current education system.

East Timor is indisputably poor, and ranks among the bottom countries of the world both in terms of GDP per capita and in most direct measures of hardship. The economy has in recent years been based on agriculture and the public sector. Indonesians transfers to the public sector and to infrastructure make up at least 50% of the GDP and agriculture around 30%. Nevertheless some 80% of the work force is found in agriculture. Although there are hopes for oil development, tourism and coffee production, at present the economic base is extremely undeveloped and weak.

East Timor has a dry climate compared to neighboring islands, which make freshwater resources and especially drinking water a problem. Therefore, securing safe drinking water for the population is not simply a question of infrastructure, but also creative water management. Deforestation and soil erosion appear widespread, but the extent and current dynamics are not known.

Aid has been shaped by both development concerns and political events, which represent three phases: a 'closed' period (1975-1988), greater openness (1989-1997) and acute humanitarian needs (1998-). Agencies and funding are concentrated in education, health, and humanitarian relief, but development aid per capita remains low and implementation capacity weak.