Worsening climate conditions for maize in Africa

Denne artikkelen søker å forutsi størrelsen på maisavlinger i Vest-, Øst- og Sentral-Afrika, og å vektlegge betydningen av å inkludere klimafaktorer i slike modeller. Funnene viser at klimavariabler kan forklare 28 prosent av variansen i maisavlingene i disse områdene. Avlingene anslås å kunne synke med 20 prosent innen et scenario med høyere klimagassutslipp.

This article aims to predict the size of maize crops in West, East and Central Africa, and to emphasize the importance of including climate factors in such models. The findings show that climate variables can explain 28 percent of the variance in maize crops in these areas. Crop yields are projected to decline by 20 percent in a scenario with higher greenhouse gas emissions.

Publisert: 03 October 2023

Researchers

Anne Hatløy

Fafo

Publications

Science of the Total Environment

Statistical-dynamical modeling of the maize yield response to future climate change in West, East and Central Africa using the regional climate model REMO

Bangelesa, F., Pollinger, F., Sponholz, B., Mapatano, M. A., Hatløy, A., & Paeth, H. (2023). Statistical-dynamical modeling of the maize yield response to future climate change in West, East and Central Africa using the regional climate model REMO. The Science of the Total Environment, 905, 167265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167265