The proposed project will look at both the experiences made and trends that can be detected so far, with the pension reform.
We will start by comparing earnings and pension claiming trajectories over the age span 62-69, focusing on cohorts with the trajectory either before or after the reform. The differences will be broken down into the pure effects of rules and behavioural responses, and we will study variation between groups by education, industry and other characteristics will be studied.
Pension claiming and saving will be analyzed to look signs of potential consumption shocks. Too look for a better understanding of preferencs and financial understanding, we will try structural modelling with individual variation in discount rates. Focus will be on the impact of the reform on distribution and inequality. The long term effect will be assessed by the trends detected.
We will conduct in-depth interviews among a group of retirees about motives and options. Based on experiences from the interviews we will design a survey among a representative sample of recent retirees and employees aged 62 years and older. Part of the sample and questionnaire will be structured to be comparable to a previous survey, to analyse the impact of preferences and barriers on the responses we have observed.
The results from the register based analyses and the survey will be seen in combination, to obtain a deeper understanding of the respones observed and the impact of the reform. Finally, the results will be summed to assess whether can be seen to be in compliance with the stated goals of the reform.
Erik Hernæs, Frisch (hovedprosjektleder); Simen Markussen, Frisch; Knut Røed, Frisch
The Research Council of Norway (EVAPEN)