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The future of work: Opportunities and challenges for the Nordic models


Major changes in technology, economic contexts, workforces, and the institutions of work have come in ebb and flow since well before the first industrial revolution in the 18th century. Yet, many argue that the changes we are currently facing are different, and that the rise of digitalized production will entirely transform our ways and views of work.

In this collaborative project funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers, researchers from the five Nordic countries will study how the ongoing transformations of production and labour markets associated with, amongst other, digitalization, demographic change, and new forms of employment will influence the future of work in the Nordic countries.

Through action and policy oriented studies and dialogue with stakeholders, the objective is to enhance research-based knowledge dissemination, experience exchange, and mutual learning across the Nordic boundaries.

Intermediary results from the project will feed into Nordic debates on how to contribute to the Future of Work Agenda that is to be adopted at the ILO’s centenary anniversary in 2019.

The project is conducted by a team of more than 30 Nordic scholars from universities and research institutes in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden. The project started late 2017 and will be completed by a synthesis report in 2020.

The project consists of seven "pillars" (see navigation box or download flyer.

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Final reports

Pillar I - Main drivers of change

There is a variety of factors that influence changes in working life – at present, in the future, and in the past.

Too often, debates about the Future of Work (FoW) narrowly focus on changing technologies – currently digitalization – while equally important factors that already have been at work for a while and will continue influencing working life tend to be neglected.

Examples could be demographic change – ageing and migration – climate change, and economic and political changes associated with globalization, European integration, and rising income gaps, to mention a few.

The impact of such mega-trends on work is not unidirectional. Often they pull in divergent directions, some trends go in reverse, and some prove weaker or slower than expected. Moreover, the opportunities and threats they pose to jobs and working conditions are filtered by institutions, policies, and economic conditions that differ across countries, regions, and industries. That is, the future of work is undetermined and will ultimately depend on human agency and imagination.

In Pillar-I we will briefly review the main drivers of change that are likely to influence Nordic working life in the 15-20 years ahead, and discuss how they may affect the institutions and policy instruments that Nordic politicians and social actors can invoke to shape the FoW.

Pillar coordinator

Jon Erik Dølvik, Senior Researcher, Fafo.

Reports and events

  1. Fafo-seminar 27. november: Fremtidens arbeidsliv – muligheter og utfordringer for de nordiske modellene.
  2. Jon Erik Dølvik & Johan Røed Steen: The Nordic future of work: Drivers, institutions, and politics. TemaNord 2018:555.
    Sammendrag av rapporten.
  3. Trenderna pekar mot en mer polariserad arbetsmarknad. Johan Røed Steen intervjues i Norden, 24. november 2018.
  4. Jon Erik Dølvik: Power point presentation, Nordic conference May 15th–16th 2018 Stockholm: Shaping the Future of Work in the Nordic Countries. 

FoWnordics: Pillar II - Digitalization of traditional forms of work

This pillar will focus on changes during the last decades in the occupational and job structure in the Nordic countries.

New technology in the form of digitalization and ICT, has been described in terms of robotics enhancing automatization, industrialization 4.0, and platforms facilitating the enrollment of extensive networks of resources.

In this pillar, our purpose is to examine how different approaches to digitalization, penetrating the established production system, affect jobs and occupations in the labour market, work and employment relations, and the strategies of stakeholders (employers, unions and governmental bodies) that are trying to govern this change.

Pillar coordinator

Bertil Rolandsson, Associate Professor, Gothenburg University.

Reports and events

  1. Publication: Bertil Rolandsson (ed.): Digital Transformations of Traditional Work in the Nordic Countries, desember 2020
  2. Thomas Berglund, Tuomo Alasoini, Jon Erik Dølvik, Stine Rasmussen, Johan Røed Steen and Pekka Varje (2020). Changes in the occupational structure of Nordic employment: Upgrading or polarization? Nordic future of work Working paper 2, 2nd edition
  3. Rolandsson, Bertil, Jon Erik Dølvik, Anna Hedenus, Johan Røed Steen, Anna Ilsøe, Trine Pernille Larsen and Tuomo Alasoini (2019). Digitalization in Nordic manufacturing: Some case-study illustrations.Nordic future of work Working paper 3
  4. Menneske mot roboter: Hva kan vi vente oss? Artikkel av Johan Røed Steen på Arbeidslivet.no 21. mai 2018.
  5. Seminar at Fafo - Future of work: Addressing the challenges of digitalisation, November, 2017. 

Pillar III - Self-employed, independent and atypical work

Non-standard work – defined as employment contracts other than full-time open-ended positions – has become more widespread in parts of the Nordic labour markets since the Global Financial Crisis.

An increasingly larger share of the Nordic workforce work under non-standard employment arrangements such as marginal part-time, temporary agency work, fixed-term contracts and self-employed without employees.

Furthermore, new forms of non-standard work has emerged like click work on digital platforms and zero-hour contracts often challenging current employment and work environment regulation.

However, wide cross-national variations exist among the Nordic countries. Temporary contracts – covering both fixed-term contracts and temporary agency work – seem most widespread in Sweden and Iceland, whereas a comparatively larger share of Danish employees holds marginal part-time positions.

In Finland, the incidence of self-employed without employees is comparatively higher than in the other four Nordic countries.

The aim of this sub-project is to map the development of non-standard work in the Nordics since 2000 and the mechanisms behind. We also seek to offer insights in emerging forms of non-standard work and develop methods that can inspire national statistical offices to find ways to include these groups in their statistics.

Furthermore, we seek to uncover relevant policy responses among public authorities and the social partners in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Iceland, which can serve as inspiring examples for how the increasing amount and variety of non-standard work can be handled.

Pillar coordinator

Anna Ilsøe, Associate professor, Employment Relations Research Centre (FAOS) at Copenhagen University.

Reports and events

  1. Final report: Anna Ilsøe and Trine Pernille Larsen (ed): Non-standard work in the Nordics: Troubled waters under the still surface, TemaNord 2021:503, februar 2021
  2. Rasmussen, Stine, Jouko Nätti,Trine Pernille Larsen, Anna Ilsøe and Anne Helene Garde (2019). Nonstandard Employment in the Nordics – Toward Precarious Work? Nordic Journal of Working Life Studies, Vol 9, Special issue No 56
  3. Larsen, Trine P. and Anna Ilsøe (2019). Atypical labour markets in the Nordics: Troubled waters under the still surface? Nordic future of work Brief 4
  4. Rasmussen, Stine, Trine Pernille Larsen, Anna Ilsøe and Per Kongshøj Madsen (2019). Atypical labour markets in Denmark.Nordic future of work Brief 5
  5. Berglund, Tomas, Anna Hedenus, Kristina Håkansson and Tommy Isidorsson (2019). Atypical labour markets in Sweden.Nordic future of work Brief 6
  6. Nergaard, Kristine (2019). Atypical labour markets in Norway. Nordic future of work Brief 7
  7. Ólafsdóttir, Katrín, Kolbeinn Stefánsson and Arney Einarsdóttir (2019). Atypical labour markets in Iceland. Nordic future of work Brief 8
  8. Ojala, Satu, Tiina Saari, Pasi Pyöriä and Paul Jonker-Hoffrén (2019). Atypical labour markets in Finland. Nordic future of work Brief 9

 

Pillar IV - New labour market agents

Platform work is still marginal in the Nordic countries, but whilst offering promising prospects for innovation and growth, it may, if it gains momentum, also engender disruptive change in parts of the labour market.

Its future path of evolution depends, amongst others, on the regulative responses of governments and social partners, and on the platforms’ ability to construct business concepts that not only meet the expectations of customers but also those of the workforce and the wider society.

Given the Nordic labour markets’ historical capacity for adjustment to change, one can indeed envisage paths of evolutionary change whereby platform work is incorporated into the associational institutions of the Nordic model, but alternative paths where platforms serve as engines for further disorganization, externalization of work, and risk for more inferior work environments appear equally plausible.

In this pillar, we will study the further spread and evolution of platform work, employment relations, and regulative, institutional responses in the Nordic countries in the context of evolving EU regulations.

Pillar coordinator

Kristin Jesnes, Researcher, Fafo

Reports and events

  1. Jesnes, Kristin & Oppegaard, Sigurd M. Nordli (ed). Platform work in the Nordic models: Issues, cases and responses. TemaNord 2020:513. Nordic Council of Ministers
  2. Platform work performed by a qualified work force – the case of technical translators. NfoW Brief 10
  3. Fafo seminar about the strike among Foodora-emplyees. The pink strike #Rosastreiken
  4. Jesnes, Kristin (2019). Employment Models of Platform Companies in Norway: A Distinctive Approach? Nordic Journal of Working Life Studies, Vol 9, Special issue No 56
  5. Oppegaard, Sigurd M.N., Anna Ilsøe, Kristin Jesnes, Bertil Rolandsson and Antti Saloniemi (2019). Uber in the Nordic countries: Challenges and adjustments. Nordic future of work Brief 1
  6. Jesnes, Kristin and Fabian Braesemann (2019). Measuring online labour: A subcategory of platform work. Nordic future of work Brief 2
  7. Jesnes Kristin, Anna Ilsøe and Marianne J. Hotvedt (2019). Collective agreements in the platform economy. Nordic future of work Brief 3
  8. Rasmussen, Stine (2018). Platform work in Denmark and regulatory issues - towards a conceptualization. Presentation at Nordic Work Life Conference.
  9. Alsos, Kristin, Kristin Jesnes and Beate Sletvold Øistad (2018). Når sjefen er en app – delingsøkonomi i et arbeidsperspektiv. Praktisk økonomi & finans 02 / 2018 (Volum 34).
  10. Dølvik, Jon Erik and Kristin Jesnes (2018). Nordic labour markets and the sharing economy. Report from a pilot project. TemaNord 2018:516. Nordic Council of Ministers.
  11. Fafo-breakfast about the platform economy in Norway, January 2018. 
  12. Ilsøe, A & Madsen, LW (2018). Industrial Relations and Social Dialogue in the Age of Collaborative economy (IRSDACE). National Report Denmark. vol. FAOS Research Paper No 163, FAOS, Sociologisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Copenhagen. 
  13. Rasmussen, Stine & Per Kongshøj Madsen (2017). Plattfomrøkonomien og prekariatet. Tidsskrift for Arbejdsliv, 19(1).
  14. Ilsøe, A & Madsen, LW (2017). Digitalisering af arbejdsmarkedet: Danskernes erfaring med digital automatisering og digitale platforme. vol. 157.
  15. Dølvik, J. E. & Jesnes, K. (2018). Nordic labour markets and the sharing economy. Report from a pilot project. TemaNord 2018:516. Nordic Council of Ministers. Last ned / Download pdf
  16. Dølvik, J. E. & Jesnes, K. (2017). Nordic labour markets and the sharing economy. Report from a pilot project. TemaNord 2017:508. Nordic Council of Ministers. Last ned / Download pdf
  17. Alsos, K., Jesnes, K., Øistad, B. S. & Nesheim, T. (2017). Når sjefen er en app. Fafo-rapport 2017:41

Pillar V - Occupational health – consequences and challenges

There is solid scientific evidence that work environment factors have an impact on worker’s health, and the costs of this for enterprises and society are substantial.

New scientific studies in this field clearly show that work environment interventions, as long as they are means-tested, knowledge-based and systematically implemented, return the investments with a positive outcome, often also resulting in more efficient production processes or higher quality in the services provided.

However, new forms of work might result in novel, unforeseen work environment challenges, which might limit the positive outcome potential of new technologies and their application in working life.

Such effects might be critical when the changes are rapid, as we are facing today. Thus, there is a need for knowledge on how trends supposed to mark future work life may cause new exposures detrimental to worker’s health and well-being.

Pillar V will address the consequences and challenges for the future working environment in the Nordic countries.

Pillar coordinator

Jan Olav Christensen, Researcher at National Institute of Occupational Health (STAMI).

Publications

  1. Christensen, Bakke Finne, Kristiansen: The future of the Nordic psychosocial work environment:: Implications for occupational health, February 2021
  2. Stami-rapport 02/2020: The influence of digitalization and new technologies on psychosocial work environmentand employee health: a literature review.

 

Pillar VI - Labour law & regulations

Pillar VI will examine the need and potential for renewal of Nordic labour law in light of changes in the labour market caused by digitalization and new forms of work.

More specifically, the pillar will try to:

  • Identify how change and developing trends affect and challenge the regulatory framework of labour law in the Nordic countries
  • Suggest possible avenues for legal development and reform in a Nordic context, responding to the identified challenges.

Pillar coordinators

Marianne J. Hotvedt, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Oslo.

Kristin Alsos, Research Director, Fafo.

Reports and events

  1. Sluttrapport: The future of Nordic labour law: Facing the challenges of changing labour relations
  2. Key concepts and changing labour relations in Denmark. Part 1 Country report. NfoW WP4
  3. Key concepts and changing labour relations in Finland. Part 1 Country report. NfoW WP5
  4. Key concepts and changing labour relations in Iceland. Part 1 Country report. NfoW WP6
  5. Key concepts and changing labour relations in Norway. Part 1 Country report. NfoW WP7
  6. Key concepts and changing labour relations in Sweden. Part 1 Country report. NfoW WP8
  7. Labour law in the future of work. Introduction paper. Nordic future of work Working paper 1
    Hotvedt, Marianne Jenum and Natalie Videbæk Munkholm (2019)
  8. The contract-of-employment test renewed. A Scandinavian approach to platform work. Spanish Labour Law and Employment Relations Journal, 1-2(7), 56-74
  9. Protection of platform workers in Norway Part 2 Country report. NfoW WP9
  10. Protection of platform workers in Denmark Part 2 Country report. NfoW WP10
  11. Protection of platform workers in Iceland Part 2 Country report. NfoW WP11
  12. Protection of platform workers in Sweden Part 2 Country report. NfoW WP12

 

Final synthetizing report: The Nordic model of labour market governance

The purpose and issues to be addressed in pillar VI is to synthetize the main findings of the project with emphasis on possible societal strategies to influence, accommodate, and counter detrimental effects of the envisaged future change in work, work environments, employment relations, and labour markets.

With emphasis on changes in the roles of organized actors and the relationship between statutory and negotiated regulation, the overarching aim in this pillar is to discuss the future of the Nordic model itself, with special focus on needs, avenues, and possible means to remedy emerging gaps and revitalizing its ability to reconcile growth, efficiency, and equity in working life.

See also Fafo's research area: The Nordic model

Pillar coordinators

Jon Erik Dølvik, Senior Researcher, Fafo

Kristin Alsos, Research Director, Fafo

Report

Forskere

Fafo-utgivelser

Ekstern publisering og formidling

Prosjektperiode

  • Oppstart:
    januar 2017
  • Avsluttes:
    april 2021

Oppdragsgiver

  • Nordisk ministerråd
Forskningstema

Den nordiske modellen

Forskningstema

Organisering og tariffavtaler

Forskningstema

Lønns- og arbeidsvilkår

Forskningstema

Ny teknologi